Gulf Arm Race

  

Background:

the Arab gulf states have been expanding and developing their military powers since the first Gulf war but the process developed to arm race after the second Gulf war when the GCC states felt the need for protecting themselves after Kuwait paid an expensive prices for the second Gulf war, add to that  the real threat of the Iranian desire to own their own nuclear power plus the recent improvement in the Iranian missile arsenals which consider one of the strongest regionally and internationally; according to some experts.

The Gulf states have been always in competitive relationship even in the best times, the situation there were no peace no war, but Iraq played the role of balancing power for some time, during the 1970s - 1980s not only against Iran but on some occasions against Israel too,  but after the second Gulf war when Iraq as a military power was eliminated the region system lacked the existence of balance of power which leads to the current hidden arm race between Iran and the GCC countries accompanied by Iraq.

Arm Race - reasons and results:

It is not a secret that Iran posses the strongest military power after Israel in the region, and that led the GCC states to increase their military capabilities significantly during the past few years. The Financial Times revealed the intention of some GCC states to spend over $100 billion on arms deals for advanced military equipment including; PAC3, C-130J Jets,  Typhoon jets, Boeing F-15SA fighter jets and upgrade for F- 15s from USA and UK during the upcoming 4 years.

Generally speaking the ongoing arm race in the region reflects the desire to exert influence and control more than defense; according to some experts  the possibility of  bombing or sending Iranian missile to Riyadh or Dubai are almost rare compared to applying the same hypothesis on Israel which could explain why these states desire to buy air and Naval equipment and not giving so much attention to Ground equipment  which might give them the advantage, though the GCC states cannot develop a balance of force in comparison to Iran.                                                                                                                              

So what is the real reason behind the ongoing arms race in the Gulf region? In order to answer this question we must head into the political interests behind it.... It has been known since the U.S. war on Iraq that the United States is seeking to protect its strategic interests in the region, especially after the failure in addressing the expansion of Iran and the failure of all scenarios in containing Iran's nuclear activity, the United States established a security alliance with the oil rich Gulf states in a desperate attempt to confronting Iranian power and which may pose a threat to U.S. interests in the region, not only through its control over the Strait of Hormuz and which handles most Gulf oil supplies, but also as a regional power equivalent to Israel and overwhelm most of the neighboring countries which led the United States to bless the ongoing arms race in the region, but that was not the only goal for establishing a strategic security alliance, also the arms deals with the rich Gulf states contributed to run arms factories in the United States and the United Kingdom after the economic crisis that hit the economy in Europe and U.S. making it clear that the goal behind encouraging the arms race in the Gulf states is not a purely strategic goal, but had other targets serve industrialized nations that dominating the arms industry. But what is the real result of such an alliance.... Could it really make a balance of powers in the region, or is it creating a crisis waiting to explode at any time? 

According to experts, the arms race in the Gulf region has had disadvantages more than advantages; though this race awakened the Gulf states on the fact that the United States would not exist always to protect them, but in return provided an area full of religious and regional conflicts with modern and advanced weapon technologies that might be used incorrectly and in destructive manner in conflicts which can be solved diplomatically before the arm race era, taking into account the growing tension between Iran and the Gulf states, which represented by the conflicts in the lands of Iraq and Bahrain, which are Saudi Arabia and Iran are the hidden hands behind these conflicts.

Prospective Scenarios:

The possible scenarios for the evolution of this situation in the region may not be realistic in an area of permanent ​​variables, because what is realistic according to today's current data may not be the case in a few months, but through the possibilities of current situation, the region is subject to two scenarios: first the increasing intensity of conflict and the imposition of control, pushing the Iranian and the Gulf into a regional war and it is the most probable and realistic scenarios in light of the increasing tension between Shiites backed by Iran in some areas of the Gulf and its neighbors (Bahrain - Iraq - Kuwait - eastern Saudi Arabia - Northern Yemen - Lebanon) and the Sunnis, backed by the official sponsorship of Saudi Arabia and the rest of the states, who sees the Shiites as a expansion of Iranian control.

The second scenario would be the potential establishment of a broad coalition with the countries of the region and that border Iran and the Arabian Gulf to include Yemen, Iraq and the United States; as supporter for the alliance, which will put Iran in front of a difficult choice, they will not be able to engage in an armed conflict with more than one party and risking its future in the region.                                                              

Despite the difficulty of achieving this scenario, it could be a strategic solution best suit the arms race in the Gulf region and the parties involved.